August 13, 2026 • AM Edition

Good morning. The inflation dashboard blinked green, then asked us to read the footnotes.

Wholesale Inflation Cools. The Core Still Has a Pulse.

U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July and slowed to 4.7% year over year, but the broader core measure excluding food, energy and trade services still rose 0.4% for the month—less an all-clear than a quieter alarm.

Inflation doves and Fed officials favoring a hold see softer producer data, cooler consumer inflation and July job losses as reasons to wait in September. Inflation hawks and officials open to a hike point to the 4.7% broad-core annual rate, rebounding fuel prices and inflation still above target; the calendar has once again declined to settle the argument for them.

1) Tariff refunds start moving. FedEx, UPS and DHL are beginning to pass along refunds from emergency tariffs the Supreme Court said IEEPA did not authorize; CBP has returned about $100 billion to importers, though a direct consumer refund path generally exists only for eligible duties customers actually paid—and, yes, the paperwork now has phases.

2) DOJ adds an individual defendant. Prosecutors charged former Southern Poverty Law Center Intelligence Project director Heidi Beirich in the organization’s fraud case, alleging she helped route donor money through informant and joint accounts; her lawyer says she is innocent and calls the case politically motivated.

3) Claims edge higher. New unemployment filings rose 9,000 to 209,000 last week, while continuing claims fell 22,000 to 1.777 million—still consistent with historically low layoffs.

Information current as of 8:21 a.m. CT, August 13, 2026.